(SDG TALKING) - Bunyamin Surmeli - Europe's energy sector is set for a historic transformation, with wind farms expected to generate more electricity than coal by 2025. The rise of renewables and the decline in coal production marks an important milestone in the energy sector. But this transition still faces some risks due to uncertainties in the energy market.
The Balance Between Wind and Coal Generation is Shifting
According to 2024 data from energy think tank Ember, the total electricity generated by wind power plants in Europe reached 616 terawatt hours (TWh), only 4% behind the 641 TWh generated by coal-fired power plants. If the trend of a 7% decrease in coal generation and a 3% increase in wind generation continues in 2025, wind power is expected to overtake coal generation by 6%.
If this prediction comes true, it will be a first not only for Europe but also for the global energy sector. A single renewable energy source surpassing coal-fired electricity generation in a large region would represent a tangible achievement of the renewable energy transition.
Wind Capacity Growth: Targeting Record Levels
This growth in wind energy is supported by regional investments. According to Wind Europe's report, wind capacity in Europe was increased by 15 gigawatts (GW) in 2024, bringing the total capacity to 287 GW. This capacity increase is expected to boost electricity generation to around 652 TWh in 2025, a growth of 6%. This is enough for wind to overtake coal even if coal generation remains at 2024 levels.
However, if coal production falls by a further 7% in 2025, wind power could overtake coal by around 10%. This success will accelerate Europe's progress towards its energy transition goals.
Uncertainties and Potential Risks
While the energy transition in Europe is promising, some risks could slow it down:
Reduced natural gaspipeline flows from Russia to Europe could impact the energy market. Shrinking natural gas supplies could force power companies to increase their use of coal. For example, a 1% drop in generation from natural gas-fired plants could require 10 TWh more generation from coal plants. This could push coal generation above 650 TWh and close the gap with wind generation.
Low wind speedsIn 2024, wind speeds in Europe were below long-term averages for certain periods. In wind energy leaders such as Germany, low wind speeds continue to be a concern in the energy sector, negatively impacting production. If a similar situation occurs in 2025, it may be difficult to reach targeted production levels despite the increase in wind generation capacity.
Changes in Industrial DemandStagnant industrial activity in Europe could depress coal use by reducing energy demand. However, an economic recovery could increase energy demand, requiring more production from all sources. In such a scenario, coal could regain importance as a back-up fuel.
Europe's Importance in the Energy Transition
Wind power overtaking coal will be an important milestone in Europe's transition to sustainable energy. This achievement will strengthen the steps taken to reduce carbon emissions and meet climate change targets. But this transformation must be underpinned not only by increasing technical capacities, but also by political commitment and market stability.
Think tanks such as Wind Europe and Ember agree that this increase in wind generation will lead the European energy sector towards a cleaner and more sustainable future. But uncertainties in wind speeds, fluctuations in natural gas supply and shifts in industrial demand are key challenges to achieving these goals.
