UN 
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has raised its climate risk outlook this week, warning that El Niño conditions could drive global average temperatures to new highs as soon as 2027. During a Tuesday briefing in Geneva, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saenz cited updated climate models indicating a strong probability—over 80%—that the coming El Niño cycle will push temperatures above the 1.5°C Paris Agreement threshold within the next 12 to 18 months.
Meteorological stations across Asia and North America are already reporting above-average spring temperatures this May, straining urban heat response systems from Tokyo to Phoenix. The WMO’s forecast has prompted several governments, including Brazil and Indonesia, to accelerate drought and wildfire preparedness plans for the second half of 2026.
The WMO’s latest bulletin distinguishes between the cyclical natural effects of El Niño and the underlying trend of anthropogenic warming. While El Niño events typically last 9 to 12 months, Saenz emphasized that the combination with record-high greenhouse gas concentrations is amplifying the impact. In 2026 alone, atmospheric CO2 is projected to average 424 ppm, up from 421 ppm two years ago, according to the Mauna Loa Observatory.
Despite a wave of climate adaptation funding announcements in recent months—from the EU’s €3.1 billion Green Shield package to the African Union’s new heatwave resilience initiative—implementation remains uneven. The WMO is urging member states to move beyond pledges towards measurable outcomes by the 2026 UN Climate Conference, scheduled for October in Nairobi.
With the prospect of another record-hot year approaching, the WMO calls for governments, corporations, and civil society to prioritize transparent climate risk disclosures and to integrate heat resilience into urban planning before the peak of the 2027 El Niño cycle.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does the WMO warn that 2027 could be a record-hot year?
The WMO warns that El Niño conditions combined with high greenhouse gas concentrations could push global temperatures to new highs by 2027.
What is the probability that temperatures will exceed the 1.5°C Paris Agreement threshold soon?
The WMO estimates there is over an 80% probability that the next El Niño cycle will push temperatures above the 1.5°C threshold within 12 to 18 months.
How are countries responding to the WMO’s climate risk outlook?
Countries like Brazil and Indonesia are accelerating drought and wildfire preparedness plans for the second half of 2026 in response to the WMO’s forecast.
How much is atmospheric CO2 expected to increase by 2026?
Atmospheric CO2 is projected to average 424 ppm in 2026, up from 421 ppm two years earlier.
What actions is the WMO urging governments to take before the 2027 El Niño cycle?
The WMO is calling for governments, corporations, and civil society to prioritize transparent climate risk disclosures and integrate heat resilience into urban planning before the 2027 El Niño peak.
