As July heatwaves intensify across major cities, delegates at the UN climate talks in Belém, Brazil, are facing a widening rift over the future of fossil fuels. The newly launched ‘Mission to 1.5’—a core initiative meant to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming target within reach—has become a flashpoint between vulnerable island states, least developed countries (LDCs), and oil-exporting nations.

Representatives from the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), speaking Tuesday afternoon outside the main conference hall, called for a formal commitment to phase out oil, gas, and coal by 2040, tying their survival to accelerated decarbonization. Their position was echoed by the LDC Group, which demanded a concrete fossil fuel exit plan be integrated into the Mission’s 2026 progress roadmap.

In sharp contrast, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) issued a statement late Wednesday, urging member states to ramp up oil and gas investments through 2030, arguing that energy security and economic development remain non-negotiable priorities. Saudi Arabia’s delegation, in particular, pointed to current volatility in global LNG prices—up 18% since the start of summer—as justification for continued hydrocarbon expansion.

While the UN Secretariat emphasized ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ in Thursday’s press briefing, the absence of clear language on fossil fuel phase-out in the preliminary Belém Mission text has drawn criticism from climate campaigners. Observers warn that without a consensus, the credibility of the 1.5°C goal—already at risk as global emissions plateau—may erode ahead of the 2026 deadline for national progress reports.

With tempers running high amid record-breaking temperatures and rising power demands, all eyes are on next week’s closed-door negotiations. Whether the final Mission to 1.5 framework will deliver measurable fossil fuel reductions or simply recycle old pledges remains a key question for policymakers and advocates alike.