Saturday afternoon crowds in Jakarta and São Paulo are feeling the brunt of this summer’s historic heat, as meteorological agencies confirm one of the fastest-developing El Niño events on record. The Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG) reported this week that sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific have climbed 1.8°C above the seasonal average, a key indicator of El Niño’s rapid intensification.

This spike is translating into tangible impacts: Spain’s AEMET logged 41°C in Seville on Thursday, shattering local July records. Meanwhile, northern Brazil’s agricultural sector is bracing for drought, with the Ministry of Agriculture estimating a potential 12% decrease in second-harvest maize yields if dry patterns persist into August.

International climate researchers at the World Meteorological Organization now estimate a 78% probability that 2026 will surpass all previous years as the planet’s hottest on record. This projection, shared during a UNFCCC technical briefing on Wednesday, raises concerns about the ability of vulnerable nations to safeguard water access and public health during peak summer months.

Despite these warnings, tangible adaptation funding continues to lag behind need. The Adaptation Fund’s 2026 disbursement tracker shows only $1.2 billion delivered so far this year—well short of the $4 billion requested by African Union member states in April. SDG 13 (Climate Action) monitoring teams emphasize that while policy pledges have increased since early spring, “delivery on the ground remains patchy, especially in low- and middle-income regions,” according to Dr. Lila Mendez, SDG climate advisor based in Nairobi.

With the northern hemisphere’s hottest weeks still ahead, observers are urging governments and private sector partners to accelerate both short-term resilience measures and long-term climate adaptation investments. The next WMO global update, expected later this month, will offer a clearer picture of whether 2026 is indeed on track for a new temperature record.